My Thoughts on the (GI) Florida Derby

March 29, 2014

Dear Readers,

            Here are my thoughts on the (GI) Florida Derby, going one-mile and one-eighth at Gulfstream Park.

1.       Wildcat Red – This colt’s past performance charts are starting to look pretty awesome. Add to that, in the last race, he got hooked early and ground it out all the way. While you’re looking, take note of the quality of the horses that finished behind him.

2.      Matador – I don’t think so.

3.      Cairo Prince – He’s definitely going to get tested today. What a horse.

4.      Constitution – Really? With his breeding and his connections…how can you ignore this colt?

5.      East Hall – Good Grief, this horse has started twelve times in little more than nine months. That is amazing when you consider this is a just-turned three-year-old, and most of his races were as a two-year-old. This must be an iron-legged son-of-a-gun.

6.      General A Rod – You can’t argue with the quality of this colt and you need only look at the type of horses he’s been running against to prove it. And…he doesn’t need the lead. Very versatile.

7.      Allstar – Could affect the front runners, but little more.

8.     Spot – I find it hard to make a case for this horse, despite his trainer.

            Barring late scratches, there are four horses out of eight who look like they have a legitimate chance of affecting the order of finish. But then again that is the sort of statement that guarantees a long shot steels the race.

            Since I love to pick a winner, I’m afraid I’m destined to be disappointed. Wildcat Red, Cairo Prince, General A Rod? These three look so good; you could easily bet a tri-fecta box, but there is one pesky little problem—Constitution.

            Reputation means a lot in this business and Constitution’s connections don’t have a reputation of entering a race just to fill a stall in the starting gate.

            I’ve been firmly ensconced on the Cairo Prince bandwagon. But Wildcat Red, yikes, he looks so good. The condition of the track may hold the key to picking this race. I’m going to be rooting for a safe, cleanly run race and a four horse dead heat.

            This is really tough for me, and I think a good race to watch and enjoy. As a horseman, this is without a doubt the best free entertainment going. Good Luck.

Take care,

Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.

www.shelleyriley.com

My Look at the (GII) Louisiana Derby

March 29, 2014

Dear Readers,

            Sorry, it’s been a busy week and I didn’t have the time to look at this week’s races until today. But here we go, the (GII) Louisiana Derby, one-mile and one-eighth, running today over the Fair Grounds dirt course.

1.       Intense Holiday – This will be his eighth race in as many months. He should be well seasoned by now. This horse has been running against tough fields every time and he has never run a clunker, well maybe one. I doubt we will see him on the front end in this field, but he should be coming strong at the end.

2.      King Cyrus – I’m not sure why this horse is in this race. Nice colt, but unless his connections know something that doesn’t show on the charts; I can’t see him making an impact on the finishing order.

3.      Louies Flower – Looked like his connections may have bit off more than their horse could chew in the last race. The Southwest was packed with big time contenders.

4.      Flat Gone – I don’t see this colt being a threat in this race.

5.      Gold Hawk – Nice colt, but he has been beaten by the favorites in this race, twice. While it would be a surprise if he won, it wouldn’t be a shocker.

6.      Vicar’s In Trouble – This horse has speed, but he can be rated. He will not be ignored.

7.      Commanding Curve – I need to see another race at this level before I can back this horse. He belongs; I’m just not sure he can beat the favorites.

8.     Rise Up – This horse wants the lead, he won’t be alone up there, and I think he’ll weaken.

9.      In Trouble – In the Gotham, this horse was coming off a five month gap between races. With only two lifetime races under his belt before that, and those were at six furlongs. Clearly one of the speed horses in the race, he didn’t disappoint. He was fresh and rank on the front end, and when he got hooked in the lane he looked like he might stop. Not only did he not stop, he fought every step of the way despite being put in tight on the rail and clearly tired. Love this horse; he should improve considerably off that last race.

10.  Albano – Okay, this horse has speed, but I think he can stalk the speed while keeping himself out of trouble. I also think they tried to steal the Risen Star and after fighting off Vicar’s In Trouble, who was positioned between him and Intense Holiday. I think he didn’t see the latter coming. He had to re accelerate and ended the race a hard fought second, beaten by the smallest of margins. I like this horse a lot. 

            So who do I pick?

            For myself, I would buy an exacta box between In Trouble and Albano, and that’s because I can’t pick between the two. There are two other horses in this race that clearly have a chance of being in winner’s circle if the speed commits suicide on the front end. Vicar’s In Trouble and Intense Holiday. So it comes down to track condition and how it’s playing out.

            And then there’s the Florida Derby (GI) at Gulfstream Park. I will work on that now and do another posting shortly.

Take care,

Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.

www.shelleyriley.com

Speedy Sunland Derby

March 23, 2014

Dear Readers,

            As promised, here are my thoughts on the one-mile and one-eighth (GIII) Sunland Derby at Sunland Park.

1.       Bourbonize – This horse looks like a grinder to me, he gets into one gear and stays there, if the speed slows down, he’ll be grinding along passing tiring horses. I watched the replay of the Southwest Stakes and he didn’t seem to have any excuses.

2.      Garen – Lightly raced and he looks like he’s getting smarter with each race. He has speed, but is it stake race level speed?

3.      Commissioner – Fabulous pedigree, great connections, but what happened in the Fountain of Youth Stakes? He didn’t look uncomfortable. It didn’t look like he got in trouble. He looked like he got outrun. Blinkers on. (Stalker?)

4.      Global Strike – He’s got speed, and he’s getting better with each race. This race looks like a good spot to find out what they’ve got. (Speed)

5.      Tanzanite Cat – This horse likes to run on the front end, and this race is setting up so he’ll have a lot of company contesting that lead. I wonder what would happen if they tried taking him back off the pace setters. (Speed)

6.      Lawly’s Goal – Would be a surprise.

7.      Midnight Hawk – Hooked a monster in the San Felipe. This horse has speed, but I don’t think he has to have the lead. Very Impressive.

8.     Rebranded – This colt is familiar with the course and has run two good races over the surface. I can see why they entered him, but I think the California invaders are going to be really tough. (Speed? /stalker.)

9.      Chitu – Fabulous race in Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) and his first time going around two turns. (Speed) 

            Wow, this race is setting up to be a cavalry charge. They can’t all be in front. I really like Chitu to be there at the finish. I think I would take a flyer on an exacta box with Global Strike and Chitu. If I was willing to fork over the money on a Tri-fecta, I would have to throw in Midnight Hawk. I don’t like the way Commissioner ran in the Fountain of Youth, so I can’t use him.

            I still think Midnight Hawk can stalk the leaders, so he could be the choice if there is a suicide pace. I love speed, so this race is going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Take care,

Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

www.shelleyriley.com

 

               

Spiral Stakes, My Thoughts

March 22, 2014

Dear Reader,

 

            Its eight-thirty in California, it’s going to be seventy-five glorious degrees today, and my garden beckons. Drought resistant plants are lined up, where water hungry ones used to reside, and I will mulch, mulch, mulch.

            But first, high octane coffee and a good look at today’s GIII Spiral Stake at Turfway Park. A full field of twelve horses will compete, the one-mile and one-eighth distance, over Turfway’s Polytrack surface.

1.       Big Bazinga – The last race was a “Big” improvement, but the company was without a doubt a lot easier. (No Speed)

2.      Asserting Bear – Would be a surprise. (stalker)

3.      Poker Player – Lacks speed, and that was a big handicap to overcome on the speed biased Santa Anita surface on Breeders’ Cup Day. (No Speed at all)

4.      Tamarando – When you come from that far off the pace, and circle the field, you’ll need fast fractions up in front of you and the early speed to come back sharply. (No Speed)

5.      Coastline – Been running with some of the best, his stalking the leader style should manifest into a front runner with this group. (Speed/stalker)

6.      Smart Cover – Throw out the last race after he stumbled out of the gate. Talented but I need to see more. (No Speed)

7.      All Tied Up – Would be a surprise. (No Speed)

8.     Solitary Ranger – Got speed, and he’ll use it. Probably the one I would pick for the win.

9.      Almost Famous – He’s been getting outrun by some really nice horses. He has some early speed and will need to employ it if he is to have any chance. He won’t be alone on the front end and I think he might prefer a solitary lead. (Speed)

10.  Harry’s Holiday – Should improve off his last race. But he couldn’t go with Solitary Ranger before. Would be a surprise. (Speed)

11.   We Miss Artie – Which horse shows up today? There seems to be an every other race pattern forming. So if that pattern holds true, he should run big. (stalker/sorta)

 

12.  Arctic Slope – After a layoff, I would think he needs a race. (No speed) 

            This is a remarkably tough race to handicap. My gut tells me to look for the speed. Real speed, speed that can get hooked and hold on. If I do that, I’ll have to ignore the horses that have been running in the tougher races, and who don’t have any speed, or if they do have some speed, they don’t like getting hooked. It might come down to watching how the track plays today. 

            I’m not sure I would put any of my hard earned money on this race. But if I did, it would be no more than a $10.00 bet. I suppose I could peel a few singles off my big $10.00 wad and place an exacta on Solitary Ranger and Coastline. If the speed stops, I’d be looking for Tamarando.

            This should be a fun race to watch. I’ll try to take a look at tomorrow’s Sunland Derby and post my thoughts tonight or tomorrow.  

Take care,

Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

www.shelleyriley.com 

          

Rough Riders in the Rebel

March 21, 2014

Dear Readers,

            I took a long look at the Rebel Stakes, and I repeatedly hit rewind in order to watch the brouhaha going on in the stretch run from several angles. By the way, the pin ball action all started at the top of the stretch when Tapiture’s jockey chose to put it all on the line, running up on Strong Mandate’s heels and pushed Hoppertunity out of his way in order to find clear running room. My heart was in my throat, if he’d clipped heels, Tapiture could have gone down. I’ve seen back tendons severed in similar situations. I hope Strong Mandate is all right.

            There is no doubt that Hoppertunity smacked into Tapiture, who then slammed into Strong Mandate. I think the stewards must have agreed that the move Tapiture made at the head of the stretch was just as egregious as the one Hoppertunity made further down the lane. Thus, the one cancelled out the other. But what about poor old Strong Mandate, minding his own business, running a strong race, when he was mugged, both by Hoppertunity and Tapiture. Strong Mandate wasn’t out of contention when they started fouling him.

Since I’m entitled to voice my opinion, I felt both horses that fouled Strong Mandate should have been disqualified and placed behind him. Thus, if I was the one making the call, the order of finish would have had Ride On Curlin winning the race, with Strong Mandate second.

            That’s not the case, and not what happened, so we'll never know if Strong Mandate would have hung on and made a race of it all the way to the wire. All we can do is look ahead and use this race to gauge his chances in future races. I like all four of those horses and its always unfortunate when a race, as important as the Rebel, ends up a stewards call. I don't envy them their job. You can't please all the people...yadda yadda.

            I have a busy schedule tomorrow, but I will try to get around to looking over this weekend’s two big races, the Spiral and the Sunland Derby.

Take care,

Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

www.shelleyriley.com

Finalists Announced for Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award

March 18, 2014

Dear Readers,

            The finalists for the 2013 Castleton Lyons Dr. Tony Ryan award were announced yesterday, and I’m delighted that my memoir, Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure, has been chosen as a finalist in this prestigious international literary competition. I’ve included the press release from Castleton Lyons at the end of this post.

            As a writer, getting published has never been easy. Many a fine author, after repeated rejection letters, has ended up putting a terrific story on the shelf to gather dust.  With the advent of print-on-demand publishing, a whole new world opened up for would be authors. Once called vanity presses, rejected authors could contract with a printer to produce their book. The more copies you ordered, the more reasonable the per copy price. Self-published authors would often end up with a pallet of several hundred books gathering dust in their garage.

            Now, print-on-demand for self-publishing, has eased the sometimes grueling task of finding an agent to represent your work to publishers. Publishers who are already inundated with proposals and are unlikely to consider unsolicited manuscripts. With print-on-demand presses, you don’t need an agent, and you can order one or one hundred books, and each is the same set price. Furthermore, you can come back at anytime, and order more books at the same cost per copy. This has opened up the business of self-publishing to an unlimited audience. Last year 750,000 self-published books were produced.

            Yikes! 750,000? That doesn’t include the titles published by the traditional publishing houses. As you can well imagine this opens up a whole new set of difficulties for would-be bestselling authors. Build it and they will come? Write it and they will read? Maybe, if the reading public can find it. Can you imagine pawing through 750,000 plastic pearls trying to find the genuine? Neither can most readers, they return to the mainstream authors and publishing houses they are familiar with to find their next read.

            This is why competitions like the Castleton Lyons Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award are so important. The late Dr. Ryan loved a good story, and by starting this competition, Dr. Ryan has given me and others like me, a chance to rise up out of the depths of obscurity. Making the finals, in such a prestigious literary competition, gives credibility to my endeavor, and I wish I could’ve thanked Dr. Ryan for this opportunity.

2013 Dr. Tony Ryan finalists announced   

All three finalists for the 2013 Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award are tales of unexpected equine stars who grabbed racing’s headlines in their respective eras—with two being set against the dramatic backdrop of England’s Grand National Steeplechase, and two featuring strong, barrier-breaking women.

As with the prestigious National Book Award, the Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award annually offers a $10,000 winner’s prize, with $1,000 going to each of two finalists. It was launched in 2006 by the late Dr. Ryan to recognize high-quality full-length literary work that focused on all things thoroughbred. Since Dr. Ryan’s passing in 2007, the award has continued on in his memory under the guidance of his son, Shane.

Judges for 2013 were: Kay Coyte, managing editor of the Washington Post-Bloomberg News Service; Caton Bredar, broadcaster and producer for HRTV; and Patrick Smithwick, winner of the 2012 Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award for his autobiographical Flying Change: A Year of Racing and Family and Steeplechasing. 

This year’s winner will be announced during an invitation-only reception at the Ryan family’s historic Castleton Lyons farm near Lexington on April 9. 

Finalists:

Battleship: A Daring Heiress, A Teenage Jockey, and America’s Horse

Author: Dorothy Ours

Publisher: St. Martin’s Press

Battleship, the tale of a strong-willed, enigmatic woman and the tiny but well-bred stallion she believed in, takes us on a literary gallop from historic Montpelier in Virginia, to Aintree, England, to Randolph Scott’s Hollywood. Ours’ character-driven work, based in the first half of the 20^th century, centers on Marion du Pont—a woman of wealth and privilege, who nonetheless had to battle the strict limitations placed on women of her time. A supreme horsewoman, she acquires little Battleship, in whose veins flows the fiery blood of Man o’ War, then points him for the world’s toughest race, England’s Grand National, where the fences are taller than the horse himself. She then pairs him up with an inexperienced 17-year-old jockey … and the rest, as they say, is history     

Casual Lies: A Triple Crown Adventure

Author/Publisher: Shelley Lee Riley

A story of true inspiration, Casual Lies proves emphatically that lightning can, indeed, strike anywhere. Trainer and part-time newspaper journalist Shelley Riley guides us with joy and humor down her own life path from horse-obsessed girl to history-making woman—who in 1992 up-ended a male-dominated sport by becoming the first of her gender to saddle a starter in all three American Triple Crown races. The history-making horse who took her there was Casual Lies, an undersized $7,500 auction bargain, whose outsized heart and extraordinary character was slowly revealed under Riley’s patient, loving care. This feel-good narrative may not be a fairytale in the truest sense of the word … but it’s close enough. 

Foinavon: The Story of the Grand National’s Biggest Upset

Author: David Owen

Publisher: Wisden Sports Writing

On April 7, 1967, the author witnessed this greatest of Grand National upsets on black-and-white television, as a seven-year-old boy from his home in Taunton, England. Now a retired sports editor for the London-based Financial Times, David Owen never forgot the chaos and wreckage … the almost slow-motion victory of a hopeless 100-to-1 shot that ignited within him a life-long passion for the world’s most demanding—and dangerous—horse race. In Foinavon, he pens a detailed account of the underdog winner that day 47 years ago, tracing the protagonist’s life from its beginnings, through his post-victory travels with a white nanny-goat companion, and ultimately defines what he came to mean to the sport he represented so sensationally.  

            A strong set of finalist, and I’m honored that my memoir is in the running. I’ll be looking at this weekend’s racing, and sharing my thoughts with you on Friday.

Take care,

Shelley Lee Riley, Author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

 

www.shelleyriley.com

My Pick for the GII Rebel Stakes

March 14, 2014

Dear Readers,

            As promised, here are my thoughts on the GII Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. Going one mile and one-sixteenth on the dirt, it runs tomorrow with a field of eight.

1.       Jet Cat – Unless his connections have discovered something about this colt they could address and that this discovery would move him up considerably, I couldn’t pick this colt without being privy to that information.

2.      Ride on Curlin – I believe this horse needed that last race, and should come off it stronger and even more competitive.

3.      Tapiture – What’s not to like, comes off a short layoff and runs off with a Grade III race? Very impressive.

4.      Strong Mandate – Could this horse have gotten in any more trouble than he did in the Southwest? Right out of the gate he was bumped hard. Then he got shut off and climbed heels in the first turn. When he recovered he was completely off stride and way to the outside. It was at this point his jockey asks him to set the backstretch on fire, passing the pack on the far outside, and they all looked like they were tied to a post. Down the lane he hooks up with the leaders and outlasts Ride on Curlin, and even though he switched leads several times, he was clearly out of gas, and yet he persevered to finish second to Tapiture.

5.      Hoppertunity – Hard to figure this one in here. I’m just guessing, but I would think that his trainer, who has a very strong stable of three-year-olds in Southern California, decided to spread the wealth and send this colt east. The colt had a terrible trip over the Fairgrounds strip and still managed a fourth place finish. It would be very impressive if he outran the favorites in this race.

6.      Sheltowee’s Boy – Nice colt, but I don’t see him winning here. Would be a surprise and you would need a wheelbarrow to carry away your winnings.

7.      Street Strategy – I’d like to see more races before I’d back this nice colt.

8.     Kobe’s Back – Yikes! Oh dear…a case could certainly be made that this colt is a come from behind sprinter, and a really good one at that. I’m terribly afraid to ignore him, and his connections add weight to that fear. But I just can’t back him.

SO WHO DO I PICK?

Tapiture is the obvious pick in this race, and yet I’m going with Strong Mandate. Might be fun to throw a two dollar show bet on Hoppertunity.

Good Luck everybody,

Shelley Lee Riley – Author of; Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

www.shelleyriley.com

Road to the Kentucky Derby Schedule

March 13, 2014

Dear Readers,

                Okay, I admit it; I get a form of jet lag when the time changes twice a year. Here it is Thursday and I’m still completely discombobulated. But I promise, tomorrow afternoon I will post my thoughts on the GII Rebel Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

                With a contentious eight horse field lined up to compete over one mile and one-sixteenth, it should be a great race. I’m looking forward to combing through the entrants and sharing my thoughts.

Take care,

Shelley Lee Riley, Author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

www.shelleyriley.com

Thoughts on GII San Felipe Stakes

March 7, 2014

Dear Readers,

            So here we are on the west coast this Saturday for the $300,000 GII San Felipe Stakes. It’s a one mile and one-sixteenth race run over the dirt course at Santa Anita. More importantly for those horses whose connections have aspirations of running in the Kentucky Derby, winning this race is worth fifty points towards qualifying.

Here are my thoughts;

1.       Home Run Kitten – Nice colt and in only his third start, and it’s his first time going a distance. But he’s taking on GII company. He made a nice move on the last turn in his last race, angled out at the head of the stretch, and ended up way to the outside. When everything was said and done, it didn’t matter which lane he finished in, he wasn’t going to beat the winner. There’s no doubt he needed the last race. But I think I’ll wish him luck and just watch.

2.      Unstoppable Colby – I like his breeding, I like his connections, but I’m not sure why he’s in this race. I can’t decide if he wants to come from off the pace, press the pace or lead. Would be a surprise.

3.      Rprettyboyfloyd – You’re not going to see this colt on the front end. But he should be closing and this is his first time going two turns. Still a maiden, his connections must be very confident to run him in this race.

4.      California Chrome – Yikes….awesome in his last two outs. He runs like a horse that’s going to be a really good one. He looks like he’s on a Sunday stroll cruising along, listening to his jockey, and then bam..it’s all over. I’m not going to compare the way he looked to any other horse I’ve seen, but he looked larger than life galloping along on the front end. He picks up the pace with ease and then cools his jets after he’s embarrassed the rest of the field.  I can’t see why he won’t go the distance.

5.      Sawyer’s Hill – I can’t say much about this horse, he’s only run twice and didn’t run good or bad in either race. This will be his first time around two turns, but it sure looks like tough company to be taking on at this point in his career. Would be a surprise, though a pleasant one.

6.      Bayern – Unfortunately this colt is injured and has been scratched. But oh boy what a start to his career. If reports are to be believed, his injury is minor and he should be back soon. I will enjoy following his career and I can’t blame his trainer for not wanting to take on California Chrome at this point.

7.      Kristo – In what was basically a match race between Kristo and Midnight Hawk, and in a four horse field they hooked up from the get go. Finally down the lane the latter clearly showed he was the better of the two under those conditions. I hope Kristo can stalk the leader and hold on down the lane, rather than beat it out in a head and head confrontation. Clearly this horse belongs in this race.

8.     Schoolofhardrocks – Oh boy, how do you figure this horse? He breaks his maiden first time out going one mile back in August, now he is in a really tough race. I’ll need to watch him; if he wins…he’ll be a really nice horse.

9.      Midnight Hawk – Clearly a nice horse, going head to head on the front end won’t hurt him, as he has already proven.

10.  Recanted – I can’t think of a thing to say about this horse, well maybe the distance will help. I would suspect we will hear more from him later in the year, going a distance and on the turf. Would be a surprise here.

            So who would I put my two dollar flutter on? Nobody. I can’t bet against California Chrome, and I can’t put my money on him because he’ll be an even money favorite. But I’m sure going to enjoy watching the race.

Take care,

Shelley Riley, Author of Casual Lies - A Triple Crown Adventure

For speaking engagements; contact me at www.shelleyriley.com