Friday, March 14, 2014

My Pick for the GII Rebel Stakes

March 14, 2014

Dear Readers,

            As promised, here are my thoughts on the GII Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. Going one mile and one-sixteenth on the dirt, it runs tomorrow with a field of eight.

1.       Jet Cat – Unless his connections have discovered something about this colt they could address and that this discovery would move him up considerably, I couldn’t pick this colt without being privy to that information.

2.      Ride on Curlin – I believe this horse needed that last race, and should come off it stronger and even more competitive.

3.      Tapiture – What’s not to like, comes off a short layoff and runs off with a Grade III race? Very impressive.

4.      Strong Mandate – Could this horse have gotten in any more trouble than he did in the Southwest? Right out of the gate he was bumped hard. Then he got shut off and climbed heels in the first turn. When he recovered he was completely off stride and way to the outside. It was at this point his jockey asks him to set the backstretch on fire, passing the pack on the far outside, and they all looked like they were tied to a post. Down the lane he hooks up with the leaders and outlasts Ride on Curlin, and even though he switched leads several times, he was clearly out of gas, and yet he persevered to finish second to Tapiture.

5.      Hoppertunity – Hard to figure this one in here. I’m just guessing, but I would think that his trainer, who has a very strong stable of three-year-olds in Southern California, decided to spread the wealth and send this colt east. The colt had a terrible trip over the Fairgrounds strip and still managed a fourth place finish. It would be very impressive if he outran the favorites in this race.

6.      Sheltowee’s Boy – Nice colt, but I don’t see him winning here. Would be a surprise and you would need a wheelbarrow to carry away your winnings.

7.      Street Strategy – I’d like to see more races before I’d back this nice colt.

8.     Kobe’s Back – Yikes! Oh dear…a case could certainly be made that this colt is a come from behind sprinter, and a really good one at that. I’m terribly afraid to ignore him, and his connections add weight to that fear. But I just can’t back him.

SO WHO DO I PICK?

Tapiture is the obvious pick in this race, and yet I’m going with Strong Mandate. Might be fun to throw a two dollar show bet on Hoppertunity.

Good Luck everybody,
Shelley Lee Riley – Author of; Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

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