Saturday, March 22, 2014

Spiral Stakes, My Thoughts

March 22, 2014
Dear Reader,
 
            Its eight-thirty in California, it’s going to be seventy-five glorious degrees today, and my garden beckons. Drought resistant plants are lined up, where water hungry ones used to reside, and I will mulch, mulch, mulch.
            But first, high octane coffee and a good look at today’s GIII Spiral Stake at Turfway Park. A full field of twelve horses will compete, the one-mile and one-eighth distance, over Turfway’s Polytrack surface.
1.       Big Bazinga – The last race was a “Big” improvement, but the company was without a doubt a lot easier. (No Speed)
2.      Asserting Bear – Would be a surprise. (stalker)
3.      Poker Player – Lacks speed, and that was a big handicap to overcome on the speed biased Santa Anita surface on Breeders’ Cup Day. (No Speed at all)
4.      Tamarando – When you come from that far off the pace, and circle the field, you’ll need fast fractions up in front of you and the early speed to come back sharply. (No Speed)
5.      Coastline – Been running with some of the best, his stalking the leader style should manifest into a front runner with this group. (Speed/stalker)
6.      Smart Cover – Throw out the last race after he stumbled out of the gate. Talented but I need to see more. (No Speed)
7.      All Tied Up – Would be a surprise. (No Speed)
8.     Solitary Ranger – Got speed, and he’ll use it. Probably the one I would pick for the win.
9.      Almost Famous – He’s been getting outrun by some really nice horses. He has some early speed and will need to employ it if he is to have any chance. He won’t be alone on the front end and I think he might prefer a solitary lead. (Speed)
10.  Harry’s Holiday – Should improve off his last race. But he couldn’t go with Solitary Ranger before. Would be a surprise. (Speed)
11.   We Miss Artie – Which horse shows up today? There seems to be an every other race pattern forming. So if that pattern holds true, he should run big. (stalker/sorta)
 
12.  Arctic Slope – After a layoff, I would think he needs a race. (No speed) 
            This is a remarkably tough race to handicap. My gut tells me to look for the speed. Real speed, speed that can get hooked and hold on. If I do that, I’ll have to ignore the horses that have been running in the tougher races, and who don’t have any speed, or if they do have some speed, they don’t like getting hooked. It might come down to watching how the track plays today. 
            I’m not sure I would put any of my hard earned money on this race. But if I did, it would be no more than a $10.00 bet. I suppose I could peel a few singles off my big $10.00 wad and place an exacta on Solitary Ranger and Coastline. If the speed stops, I’d be looking for Tamarando.
            This should be a fun race to watch. I’ll try to take a look at tomorrow’s Sunland Derby and post my thoughts tonight or tomorrow.  
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure
          

No comments: