Dear
Readers,
Sorry, it’s been a busy week and I
didn’t have the time to look at this week’s races until today. But here we go, the
(GII) Louisiana Derby, one-mile and one-eighth, running today over the Fair
Grounds dirt course.
1.
Intense
Holiday – This will be his eighth race in as many months. He should
be well seasoned by now. This horse has been running against tough fields every
time and he has never run a clunker, well maybe one. I doubt we will see him on
the front end in this field, but he should be coming strong at the end.
2.
King
Cyrus – I’m not sure why this horse is in this race. Nice colt,
but unless his connections know something that doesn’t show on the charts; I
can’t see him making an impact on the finishing order.
3.
Louies
Flower – Looked like his connections may have bit off more than their
horse could chew in the last race. The Southwest was packed with big time
contenders.
4.
Flat
Gone
– I don’t see this colt being a threat in this race.
5.
Gold
Hawk
– Nice colt, but he has been beaten by the favorites in this race, twice. While
it would be a surprise if he won, it wouldn’t be a shocker.
6.
Vicar’s
In Trouble – This horse has speed, but he can be rated. He will not be
ignored.
7.
Commanding
Curve – I need to see another race at this level before I can
back this horse. He belongs; I’m just not sure he can beat the favorites.
8.
Rise Up – This
horse wants the lead, he won’t be alone up there, and I think he’ll weaken.
9.
In
Trouble – In the Gotham, this horse was coming off a five month gap
between races. With only two lifetime races under his belt before that, and
those were at six furlongs. Clearly one of the speed horses in the race, he
didn’t disappoint. He was fresh and rank on the front end, and when he got
hooked in the lane he looked like he might stop. Not only did he not stop, he
fought every step of the way despite being put in tight on the rail and clearly
tired. Love this horse; he should improve considerably off that last race.
10. Albano – Okay, this horse has
speed, but I think he can stalk the speed while keeping himself out of trouble.
I also think they tried to steal the Risen Star and after fighting off Vicar’s
In Trouble, who was positioned between him and Intense Holiday. I think he didn’t
see the latter coming. He had to re accelerate and ended the race a hard fought
second, beaten by the smallest of margins. I like this horse a lot.
So who do I pick?
For myself,
I would buy an exacta box between In
Trouble and Albano, and that’s
because I can’t pick between the two. There are two other horses in this race
that clearly have a chance of being in winner’s circle if the speed commits
suicide on the front end. Vicar’s In
Trouble and Intense Holiday. So
it comes down to track condition and how it’s playing out.
And then
there’s the Florida Derby (GI) at Gulfstream Park. I will work on that now and
do another posting shortly.
Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown
Adventure, finalist in the Castleton Lyon Dr. Tony Ryan Award.
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