Sunday, March 23, 2014

Speedy Sunland Derby

March 23, 2014

Dear Readers,

            As promised, here are my thoughts on the one-mile and one-eighth (GIII) Sunland Derby at Sunland Park.

1.       Bourbonize – This horse looks like a grinder to me, he gets into one gear and stays there, if the speed slows down, he’ll be grinding along passing tiring horses. I watched the replay of the Southwest Stakes and he didn’t seem to have any excuses.

2.      Garen – Lightly raced and he looks like he’s getting smarter with each race. He has speed, but is it stake race level speed?

3.      Commissioner – Fabulous pedigree, great connections, but what happened in the Fountain of Youth Stakes? He didn’t look uncomfortable. It didn’t look like he got in trouble. He looked like he got outrun. Blinkers on. (Stalker?)

4.      Global Strike – He’s got speed, and he’s getting better with each race. This race looks like a good spot to find out what they’ve got. (Speed)

5.      Tanzanite Cat – This horse likes to run on the front end, and this race is setting up so he’ll have a lot of company contesting that lead. I wonder what would happen if they tried taking him back off the pace setters. (Speed)

6.      Lawly’s Goal – Would be a surprise.

7.      Midnight Hawk – Hooked a monster in the San Felipe. This horse has speed, but I don’t think he has to have the lead. Very Impressive.

8.     Rebranded – This colt is familiar with the course and has run two good races over the surface. I can see why they entered him, but I think the California invaders are going to be really tough. (Speed? /stalker.)

9.      Chitu – Fabulous race in Robert B. Lewis Stakes (GII) and his first time going around two turns. (Speed) 

            Wow, this race is setting up to be a cavalry charge. They can’t all be in front. I really like Chitu to be there at the finish. I think I would take a flyer on an exacta box with Global Strike and Chitu. If I was willing to fork over the money on a Tri-fecta, I would have to throw in Midnight Hawk. I don’t like the way Commissioner ran in the Fountain of Youth, so I can’t use him.

            I still think Midnight Hawk can stalk the leaders, so he could be the choice if there is a suicide pace. I love speed, so this race is going to be a lot of fun to watch.

Take care,
Shelley Lee Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure


 

               

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