Friday, March 7, 2014

Thoughts on GII San Felipe Stakes

March 7, 2014

Dear Readers,

            So here we are on the west coast this Saturday for the $300,000 GII San Felipe Stakes. It’s a one mile and one-sixteenth race run over the dirt course at Santa Anita. More importantly for those horses whose connections have aspirations of running in the Kentucky Derby, winning this race is worth fifty points towards qualifying.

Here are my thoughts;

1.       Home Run Kitten – Nice colt and in only his third start, and it’s his first time going a distance. But he’s taking on GII company. He made a nice move on the last turn in his last race, angled out at the head of the stretch, and ended up way to the outside. When everything was said and done, it didn’t matter which lane he finished in, he wasn’t going to beat the winner. There’s no doubt he needed the last race. But I think I’ll wish him luck and just watch.

2.      Unstoppable Colby – I like his breeding, I like his connections, but I’m not sure why he’s in this race. I can’t decide if he wants to come from off the pace, press the pace or lead. Would be a surprise.

3.      Rprettyboyfloyd – You’re not going to see this colt on the front end. But he should be closing and this is his first time going two turns. Still a maiden, his connections must be very confident to run him in this race.

4.      California Chrome – Yikes….awesome in his last two outs. He runs like a horse that’s going to be a really good one. He looks like he’s on a Sunday stroll cruising along, listening to his jockey, and then bam..it’s all over. I’m not going to compare the way he looked to any other horse I’ve seen, but he looked larger than life galloping along on the front end. He picks up the pace with ease and then cools his jets after he’s embarrassed the rest of the field.  I can’t see why he won’t go the distance.

5.      Sawyer’s Hill – I can’t say much about this horse, he’s only run twice and didn’t run good or bad in either race. This will be his first time around two turns, but it sure looks like tough company to be taking on at this point in his career. Would be a surprise, though a pleasant one.

6.      Bayern – Unfortunately this colt is injured and has been scratched. But oh boy what a start to his career. If reports are to be believed, his injury is minor and he should be back soon. I will enjoy following his career and I can’t blame his trainer for not wanting to take on California Chrome at this point.

7.      Kristo – In what was basically a match race between Kristo and Midnight Hawk, and in a four horse field they hooked up from the get go. Finally down the lane the latter clearly showed he was the better of the two under those conditions. I hope Kristo can stalk the leader and hold on down the lane, rather than beat it out in a head and head confrontation. Clearly this horse belongs in this race.

8.     Schoolofhardrocks – Oh boy, how do you figure this horse? He breaks his maiden first time out going one mile back in August, now he is in a really tough race. I’ll need to watch him; if he wins…he’ll be a really nice horse.

9.      Midnight Hawk – Clearly a nice horse, going head to head on the front end won’t hurt him, as he has already proven.

10.  Recanted – I can’t think of a thing to say about this horse, well maybe the distance will help. I would suspect we will hear more from him later in the year, going a distance and on the turf. Would be a surprise here.

            So who would I put my two dollar flutter on? Nobody. I can’t bet against California Chrome, and I can’t put my money on him because he’ll be an even money favorite. But I’m sure going to enjoy watching the race.

Take care,

Shelley Riley, Author of Casual Lies - A Triple Crown Adventure

For speaking engagements; contact me at www.shelleyriley.com

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