Dear
Readers,
Over morning coffee, while keeping up
on the latest news coming out of Baltimore, I felt I would add an addendum to
my Preakness comments.
The pressure is on for the all
members of California Chrome's team. Unlike my team, coming into the Kentucky
Derby with Casual Lies, where other than us, nobody thought we had a chance and
they weren’t particularly opposed to voicing it. California Chrome came into
the Kentucky Derby with a four race win streak, where he didn’t just finish first;
he made the rest of field look like cheap claimers jumping up in class to allowance
company. The pundits, pulling out all their prejudices against California
runners, couldn’t ignore California Chrome, but nonetheless they didn’t want to
believe.
That made the media shark pool a lot
easier to handle for Art Sherman. With a shrug of the shoulders and a ready
smile, Art could wrap himself in the astounding race record of his charge, and
take the high road. Cool and confident…wait and see.
Now we have a cough. I’ve heard it
referred to as Throat-Gate, the reports of a blister on the horse’s throat which
was the cause for the cough heard around the world. Horses cough; I can’t tell
you how many times I’ve been left to brush wads of partially chewed hay off my
blouse after one of my charges has coughed.
Having said that, I would have been
beside myself if Casual Lies had coughed four times as he stepped off the track.
This is not good on any level. Every trainer worries about their horse getting
an upper respiratory, particularly during a campaign. With the scoping and the
blood work, Art and his team know what they are dealing with. They will do what
is right for the horse, he is to precious not to.
But now, let’s just ratchet up the
pressure on Art and his crew. If the horse doesn’t win, they will be excoriated,
whether or not the blister had anything to do with it. Their hearts will be
jumping out of their chests when the field turns for home, and so will mine.
Carry
on reading if you haven’t seen my thoughts on today’s field and would like to.
Dear
Readers,
The draw for post position is
complete and the ten horse field is set for the 139th running of the
Preakness Stakes. When there is a prohibitive favorite in a race, I pride
myself on looking for the possible amidst the improbable. Today as I peruse
each horse, I realize unlikely is the word I keep repeating.
I can’t pick a horse to win this
race, save one—California
Chrome. But it is a horse race and in the face of certainty, lies roughly ten-thousand
pounds of horse flesh, each with a mind of his own. There-in lies the uncertainty
and that uncertainty is the fodder pundits live for.
I won’t repeat accolades that have
already been extolled ad nauseam from too many keyboards, printed columns and media
broadcasts. How many ways can you say California Chrome is fantastic? Since I
already have, I will not spend time on a laudatory elucidation extolling all
the reasons he is such a nice horse.
So who can run second and third or
even win?
1.
Dynamic
Impact – Ran full out and gamely in the Illinois Derby. Dynamic Impact
comes into this race with tactical speed and a willingness to lay off the front
runner. Unlikely.
2.
General
A Rod – He was never in position to make an impact in the boxing
match that was this year’s running of the Kentucky Derby. I think this horse
will be a lot closer to the front end in this race and he should have no trouble
with the tight turns. Nevertheless, Unlikely.
3.
California
Chrome – Needs to break well and hopefully he’s sound. I’m a fan.
4.
Ring
Weekend – Looked pretty green in his last race, over correcting at
the head of the stretch. The race before, in which he won, he was also sensitive to
guidance by the jockey. Should improve. Unlikely.
5.
Bayern – Didn’t
have enough points to get into the Derby, and this may turn out to have been a
blessing for him. He’s got speed, lots of it. I don’t see Baffert sending his
horse out for a suicidal duel on the front end and he did take the blinkers off.
We’ll see if this horse can be rated; because I think that will be the plan.
Very interesting.
6.
Ria
Antonia – There is no doubt this is a nice filly, but for me this
is not the type of filly that can out run colts of this quality. Unlikely.
7.
Kid
Cruz
– I don’t think I would survive if I owned this horse. Dead last by twenty-five
and then he wins? Wow Silky Sullivan reincarnate? You know if there’s a real
speed duel on the front end of this race…..hmmm. But… and that is a big but, in
the other races Kid Cruz won, the frontend fractions were ridiculously slow. Interesting.
8.
Social
Inclusion – This is probably the biggest question mark for me in this
race. Clearly an impressive colt, and with only two races under his girth, he
takes on the likes of the Grade I Wood Memorial field. In the far outside at
the start, his rider asked him straight away to get some position going into
the first turn. The colt gets hung out and now that he’s up in the bit, he
refused to come back. Head and head he raced around there and opened up down
the lane, only to tire in the final eighth of a mile. Huge third place finish against
a stellar field, and in a race where he didn’t have the best of racing luck.
Very Interesting.
9.
Pablo
Del Monte – Another nice horse, but he needs to learn how to win.
Unlikely.
10. Ride On Curlin – This
horse is almost always in some kind of trouble. But in the end, with only a few
exceptions, he makes his presence known. He’s got technical speed and I would
argue he runs well when they use it. Still I can’t get behind this horse.
Unlikely.
That brings us to the big reveal….
1st California Chrome – Because, even as good as he is, we don’t know how good he’s going to
get, and also because I’m a fan. I know he has a few issues, starting gate as number
one of those, but I want to see him win. I want the thrill when he surges to
the front and I'm reminded what it feels like to see a prohibitive favorite
fulfill their promise.
2nd Social Inclusion – I like that he's fresh coming into this race. I
think this colt is definitely one to watch in the fall and in the races
leading up to the Breeder’s Cup.
3rd Bayern – Locked and loaded. Baffert is canny and wily, he’s got a
plan.
4th Kid Cruz – I’m afraid to bet a two dollar combination ticket on
this horse, my heart might give out.
I can’t wait for Saturday. What a thrill.
Take Care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown
Adventure
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