Dear
Readers,
It’s
time for me to take a look at the final twenty horses headed for the starting
gate on May 3, 2014 in the 140th renewal of the Kentucky Derby.
First let’s talk about weather. The
forecast for Saturday calls for occasional clouds and a delightful 73 degrees.
So unless one or two of the horses prefer an off track, the surface shouldn’t
be a problem for any of the participants.
Post position and the size of the
field is always a problem. Loading that many horses seems like it takes
forever, no matter how many seasoned gatemen they have on duty. If your horse
is the first one in, the wait seems interminable. The gate is always a dangerous
place when filled with fractious horses, and the longer they stand there the
more likely it is something can go awry. I always held my breath until the
horses where away and running in good order.
When you have two starting gates
stuffed into a space designed to accommodate only one, the first couple of
stalls are facing the inside rail, not the straightaway. So with the outside horses pushing for the
rail and the inside horses trying not to run into it, things can get real
interesting within the first couple of jumps away from the gate. The nice thing
is the long straightaway at Churchill Downs and the jockeys are usually pretty
careful not to get tangled up, even in the twenty horse cavalry charge right at
the start.
Let’s begin with inside and work our
way out.
1.
VICAR’S
IN TROUBLE: He’s got speed and stuck in the one hole, staring at the
rail, it’s a good thing he does. Rosie will ask him to use this speed and
barring an incident, he will be on the lead or close to it in the first furlong.
As a Fairgrounds specialist, along with his front running style, this colt is
being dismissed with current odds at 20-1. I think this is a mistake, while he
wouldn’t be my first choice; he is far more of a contender than the odds would
suggest.
2.
HARRY’S
HOLIDAY: Maybe I’m missing something, but 10-1 on the morning line
seems a bit generous for this colt in this race. I can’t get too excited when I
look through his past performances. Nice horse, no doubt, but not likely to be
a threat. Now he’s 50-1 hmmm…
3.
UNCLE
SIGH:
Sighing is exactly what I’m doing as I watch the Wood Memorial replay. What
happened? He got left, and then he got bumped and then he got a whole lot of
dirt in his face. He was jumping up and down heading into the back stretch, and
it looked like he might have picked up the bit a couple of times and then he’d spit
it out again. Once he was clear entering the stretch and the dirt wasn’t
hitting him, this is when we see the colt, belatedly pick up the bit again and
push forward. Those earlier races between Uncle Sigh and Samraat, wow, reminded
me of those classic battles between Alydar and Affirmed. How about the Gotham,
does a finish get any more exciting than that one? I don’t know what to do with
this horse. One thing for sure, they’ll be asking him away from the gate, but
it’s likely he’ll be getting a lot of dirt in his face. Even if we throw out
the last race, he’s still going to have to improve several lengths to beat this
bunch. 30-1 seems harsh though.
4.
DANZA: I’m
in love. This horse looked so good in the Arkansas Derby, he was completely relaxed
while calmly stalking the speed, and when asked he squeezed through a tight
spot on the rail and then just spanked a really tough field. All his previous
races were just too short for him and it looked like Todd Pletcher used them simply
as prep races for the longer distances. Masterfully played by his trainer, this
colt is primed and ready. 8-1 ? Show me the money.
5.
CALIFORNIA
CHROME: I know, I’m expected to be head over heels in love with
this horse. After all, I am a Californian and back in the day, Art and I even
had a client in common. What’s not to like about this horse? He’s stunning, he
has character and most importantly he wins. You know there’s a ‘but’ coming.
While being thrilled by California Chrome’s huge leads coming up on the
sixteenth pole, I’ve also been bothered by the way he pulls himself up. I get it;
he’s so far in front, the jockey would look foolish if he kept asking him. But
this horse doesn’t just go into cruise; he slows down so fast he looks like he’s
throwing the brakes on. The finish wire at Churchill downs is farther down the
stretch than the majority of racetracks. Does anyone remember Shoemaker and
Gallant Man? Horses are creatures of habit, and trust me they know where the
finish wire is. If California Chrome repeats what he did in the Santa Anita
Derby, where he even switched his tail, he slowed so quickly, I’m afraid he’ll
get caught. I would love to see a superhorse come out of California and I will
be thrilled beyond words if he spanks this field like he has he has in the last
three races. I’m just saying…and 5-2 sounds about right.
6.
SAMRAAT: Five
wins in six starts. Clearly outrun in the last race, but that was on ‘that’ particular
day and who knows what tomorrow will bring. This horse will be stalking the pace
and he has the perfect post to get a good position. I can’t imagine he won’t be
making his presence known. 15-1….are you kidding me?
7.
WE MISS
ARTIE: I’ve commented on this horse in the past and his on again — off again race record. If he
holds to his past performance record, he’s due for an off again race. Having said
that, he did outrun some nice horse’s last time out. 50-1…whatever.
8.
GENERAL
A ROD: I’m not convinced this horse wants to go further than a
flat mile. He looked fabulous galloping this morning. 15-1 seems about right to
me.
9.
VINCEREMOS: I was
at Keeneland for the Blue Grass and I would guess that a form reversal like this
horse experienced would have something to do with the track being synthetic. If
he was injured, he surely wouldn’t be entered in the Kentucky Derby. I think he
will like the sandier surface of Churchill and we will see a much better race
out of him. Off the Blue Grass finish,
30-1 seems fair.
10. WILDCAT RED: Fast
and game. I admire this horse. I’m unsure if the extra eighth of a mile is
going to serve him well. But one thing is for sure, he will leave nothing on
the track, this colt is as game as they come. 15-1 seems a little high.
11.
HOPPERTUNITY: SCRATCHED
12. DANCE WITH FATE: I bet
on this horse when I was in Lexington for the Dr. Tony Ryan Book Award and stayed
long enough to attend the races at Keeneland. This horse looked good that day
and he won like he was much the best. He obviously loves synthetic tracks. 20-1
seems a high price for a horse just off a big win against a very strong field.
13. CHITU: Pedigree, connections,
speed. I like this horse a lot. Lightly raced, but obviously groomed for this
race in particular. 20-1….no way.
14. MEDAL COUNT:
Finished well in the Blue Grass, and it looks like the distance is going to be
his friend. This will be his third start within a thirty day period, yikes.
20-1 seems a bit high.
15.
TAPITURE: Not
sure I can get behind this horse. His past performance record looks a little
like the charts on some of the stocks I own. The ones which have a slow but
steady downward trajectory. I keep hanging on, hoping they will come back. 8-1
seems generous to me.
16. INTENSE HOLIDAY: There
is a lot of speed in this race, and this horse doesn’t mind getting dirt in his
face. With a little luck he’ll stay out of trouble and close strongly. He’s run
with some of the best this season and he can’t be overlooked. The added
distance can only work in his favor. 8-1 would be a nice price.
17.
COMMANDING
CURVE: Would be a surprise, but bigger surprises than the possibility
of this horse winning have been part of the charm and allure of the Kentucky
Derby. 50-1 seems fair to me.
18. CANDY BOY: Very exciting colt,
but I would have to go with California Chrome over this horse. There is a lot
of speed in here and this colt can settle happily in behind them, a big plus in
this race. 15-1 seems right on.
19. RIDE ON CURLIN: This
colt could do it. He’s got some speed to get him over quickly from his less
than beneficial post position and yet he could settle in and wait to see how
the race unfolds. He can’t be dismissed. 15-1 seems fair.
20. WICKED STRONG: He’ll
be coming. I have to throw out that run in the Holy Bull; everybody can have an
off day. The Wood Memorial was an impressive prep for this race. 6-1 seems like
perfect odds for this horse.
Since I
tend to be a bit of a contrarian, and even though I would love to see
California Chrome putting the brakes on a sixteenth of a mile before he crosses
the finish line five lengths in front of the field, I’m going with Danza. Terrific field and I can’t wait
to put my feet up and watch the pageantry and beauty of the day from the
comfort of my air conditioned home.
Take care,
Shelley Riley author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown
Adventure
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