Friday, February 28, 2014

Thoughts on Saturdays Gotham Stakes

February 28, 2014

Dear Readers,

            As promised I took a look at the entries for tomorrows Gotham Stakes. In 1973 Secretariat added this race to his resume while he was on his way to winning the Kentucky Derby and ultimately the Triple Crown. So to say this race is officially considered a prep for the Kentucky Derby might be a bit of an understatement.

            The list of horses to win the Gotham Stakes includes some very memorable ones. Besides the aforementioned Secretariat, there was Native Dancer, Jaipur, and a thrilling dead heat between Lure and Devil His Due. The latter ran in the 1992 Kentucky Derby along with my own horse, Casual Lies.  

            The inaugural running of the Gotham was in 1953, and has been run at various distances over the years. But since 2006 the (gr.III) event has been run at one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt at Aqueduct Racecourse in New York.

            After looking at their charts and watching the videos that are available, here are my thoughts on the horses running tomorrow.

In Trouble:  Yikes, he hasn’t started since the end of September last year. He did win both of his lifetime starts and looks to be a nice horse. But those two starts were both in races going six furlongs or less. In Trouble does look like he will go longer distances; I just think he might’ve needed a race under his belt before taking on some of the horses in this race. If he does win, oh boy that would be impressive.

Financial Mogul: I suspect when the connections of this horse were looking for a race to run their talented horse in, it was any race that wouldn’t include Cairo Prince in the entries. When I look at this horse’s charts, I can’t really detect a pattern. He can run with the leaders and yet he made a strong move in the Holy Bull after dropping back to next to last in the early stages of the race. So with all the speed in this race, I suspect they will try lying back off the leaders. 

Uncle Sigh: This lightly raced colt is very impressive. He was never challenged in his second race and romped off by so far, I’d have to throw that race out. The other two, he fought gamely down the lane. He’s a trier, and definitely could reverse the order of his last race and outrun Samraat.

Noble Cornerstone: That last race is a head scratcher.

Monopolize:  I think he’s going to go off with a big price.

Deceived: I don’t think this horse’s connections are pleased to see Samraat in this race. But hope springs eternal and something I embrace every day.  

Classic Giacnroll: Seems to be getting better with racing, but I don’t see him outrunning the horses who beat him so easily in the Withers.

Samraat: Oh my…how could anyone bet against this horse? Admittedly Uncle Sigh probably made Samraat’s connections pucker up for a bit in that last race. But it looked to me like Uncle Sigh was clearly going to get outrun from the three-eighths pole on. Now let me play devil’s advocate. It’s hard to tell from the angle I got while watching the race replay, but it looked like Samraat was lugging in for the last three-eighths of a mile in the Withers. The jockey was flagging him pretty good with the left handed whip. But there must have been sufficient room for Uncle Sigh to keep on running full out, or Samraat would have been punished by the stewards. So my question is; if Samraat was lugging in, why? Also this is an entry, and I don’t imagine Noble Cornerstone was entered just to fill the race. Very interesting.

Extrasexyhippzster: I don’t think this horse is going to like all the competition on the front end in this race. If he goes with the speed and finishes strong, he will definitely be a horse to watch going forward.

Master Lightning: This horse has run behind some very nice horses. He comes from a strong stable, but nonetheless he would be a surprise.

Harpoon: In his last race, though he ran second, to me this horse never looked comfortable in his race. Coming out of the turn he practically ended up in the grandstand and yet, once he straightened out he was still running erratically coming down the lane.  It’s just a feeling, but I think he will love this outside post position.

            So what do I think? I can’t get past the chart on Samraat. But if I was going to take a flutter, and bet against the obvious favorites, it would be Financial Mogul. I’m also very curious about Noble Cornerstone, though I wouldn’t bet on him, something wasn’t right in that last race; I wonder if he swallowed his tongue or something.

            Don’t forget to take a look at my memoir about Casual Lies.  It’s a candid look about traveling the road to the Kentucky Derby with a horse nobody thought had a chance and a trainer so many felt didn’t belong.

Take care,
Shelley Riley, author of Casual Lies – A Triple Crown Adventure

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