"I Surmise."

Orb, Shug McGaughey and the Preakness Stakes

May 11, 2013

Dear Readers,

I have been cogitating over recent quotes from various trainers. These trainers have been talking about their horses as we come up to the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore Maryland. I think it would be fun to spend some time in a game of “I Surmise,” and take a stab at figuring out what they may be trying not to say.

Now remember, I am in California, I have not spoken to these trainers, I am conjecturing and nothing I hypothesize on here in this post is based on any fact known to me, or any direct statement that has been expressed to me.

            Let’s start with Shug McGaughey;

 "The track was still sloppy. Jenn said he was kind of bucking and playing and jumping the water puddles on the backstretch. I was pleased with what I saw. His energy level is right where you'd want it to be on Thursday after Saturday."

What do I get from this quote? The colt was not on the muscle, was still recovering from a big race and a long ship, barely fifteen hours after the Kentucky Derby. Doesn’t sound like a long ship, but when you factor in, a van ride to the airport, transfer to the plane, a plane ride, transfer to a van, then the van ride to the track―this is a lot of travel and right after a big effort. But the substantive part of Shugs’ quote, and what makes this rife for conjecture is the qualifier he makes―“on Thursday after Saturday.”

Next quote;

"The first thing we've got to do and what we've been doing is getting him over his last race―try to get him back on his feet the best we can, get him fresh and happy again."

What do I get from this quote? Perhaps Orb didn’t come out of the race as fresh as Shug first thought. Maybe Orb isn’t knocked out, but he isn’t jumping out of his skin either. Clocks ticking…extra vitamins, some electrolytes, time spent walking under the huge trees between the barns, listening to those obstreperous Belmont squirrels chattering high in the branches. A few easy passes around the track and with any luck by the time they leave for Pimlico, Orb will be back on his toes, with his mind back in the game.

Next quote;

“But I think we'll be fine."

Yikes! What happened to the ebullient, supremely confident guy from Monday? This is more like Shug of old, reticent and slow to give away his hand. I can’t decide if this sentence should worry me or not. At least for now, I think not, Shug is a sly old fox and unless this horse is dragging a leg, we’ve got to love him in the Preakness Stakes.

Enough for now, stay tuned for the next round of “I Surmise.”  

Be sure and check out my website www.shelleyriley.com you can access the blog from there as well. Just click on the big red and white B near the top of the page and next to the Twitter follow button.

Take care,

Shelley Riley

www.shelleyriley.com