Thoughts on the 139th Kentucky Derby
Dear Readers,
First―let’s agree that any horse running in the
Kentucky Derby, is not going to be pulling the plow that’s tilling chicken
manure into the fields around a poultry farm anytime soon. Favorites on the
morning line don’t become so, just because they have a great name or famous
connections. Each horse must demonstrate, at some point, a good deal of talent.
Anybody who has had the opportunity to see a really
great horse up close and personal, recognizes a vibrancy in their demeanor which
lesser competition lacks. In short―they stand out.
I am disinclined to bet against the favorites,
unless I know something, in particular maybe I’m training the competition and I
know how well my horse is doing and he is coming around just at the right time.
Or perhaps I have some inside information, tidbits I have gleaned from sources while
chatting around the shedrows or standing at the rail. Those things might
include; who grabbed a quarter, or the saddle slipped, the jockey lost his whip,
a bird dropped a bird-bomb on the horses head at the quarter pole…whatever!
Knowing “things” makes a difference.
Since I am not in Louisville and I am not hanging
around waiting to hear any whispery bits of gossip hanging on the wind, I have
to use my eyes and watch race replays, in hopes of seeing something which might
lead me to believe one horse stands out above another.
I see clearly there is a lot of speed in this race.
I also see it’s the kind of speed with enough class to grind it out down the
lane. Big fields are conducive to big problems, and those problems will only be
exacerbated depending on how much it rains and the condition of the track.
The Kentucky Derby’s history is rife with upsets,
thus I am inclined to ferret out, if not a true underdog, at least a horse who
will pay a good dividend on good credentials. I was completely blown away by
the race Revolutionary ran in the Withers. Could this horse get himself into any
more trouble than he did? Despite lunging, zig-zagging, running up on heels,
splitting horses, lugging in and lugging out, he looked like a gazelle trying
to avoid a cheetah when he engaged the leader in the final strides. Head up,
climbing like crazy, his ears were waggling all over the place as they crossed
the wire.
Revolutionary followed that learning experience by
getting himself basically left at the gate in the Louisiana Derby, and taking
the long way around pretty much throughout the race. But here’s the difference,
when he leveled out down the lane, he stuck his head out where it belonged, put
his ears back and looked like a horse that wanted to win. When he was
challenged by the eventual runner up―Mylute, he refused to relinquish the lead.
Which brings me to my other choice, and he will have
even bigger odds, Mylute. He looked good circling the field in the Louisiana
Derby and pushed Revolutionary hard to the wire. Hey…Mylute ran in an optional claiming race, which stated a $50,000
dollar tag, what’s not to like, he wouldn’t be the first claimer to make it
big. Need I remind anyone of Seattle Slew.
So I am going to take a flutter and bet a long shot
exacta. Revolutionary, coupled with Mylute. Meantime I am still hoping for
Goldencents, and I will gladly tear up my little exacta box.
Just my four-cent’s worth. I look forward to seeing
everybody who comes out to the Towne Center Books tonight and the Pleasanton
Simulcast tomorrow.
Take care,
Shelley Riley
www.shelleyriley.com
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